Future forest composition under a changing climate and adaptive forest management in southeastern Vermont, USA

Global change represents the greatest challenge facing forest managers today. The uncertainty and variability of potential future impacts shifting climatic disturbance regimes has led resource to seek out alternative approaches sustain long-term delivery ecosystem services. We use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II, examine evaluate range effects current adaptive management under three projected climate scenarios within forested in southeastern Vermont, USA. found that land-use legacies inertia associated with successional trajectories are likely be dominant driver composition biomass conditions for next 100 years. Nevertheless, is have greater influence on species aboveground over 200 Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) red spruce (Picea rubens) experience reductions compression relative dominance landscape. American beech (Fagus grandifolia) sugar maple (Acer saccharum) persist continue occupy prominent compositional position forests this region. Extreme warming RCP 8.5 projections resulted shifts landscape-scale (120.09 ± 4.51 Mg·ha-1) at end year when compared 4.5 (150.55 1.04 (147.90 0.79 Mg·ha-1). These findings highlight expected lag changing climate, which present significant challenges opportunities as critical services